| qualified personnel, who are not yet adequately available. The parliamentary form of government is also adopted from the West, with some adaptation to local conditions, although not enough to achieve thorough integration. The traditional organizations of the tribe, the village, and the urban community, which are essentially democratic, could make fundamental contributions to the developing national systems. The two have not yet joined fronts solidly; hence the lag in governmental organization. Local mutual aid and family solidarity could provide a solid foundation for a national system of co-operatives and credit. Settlement of disputes by mediation and other customary legal procedures could be reconciled positively with national law. The independent character and individuality of tribesmen could be recognized as a potential national asset, rather than the cause for disciplinary measures. The personal touch in human relations, a dominant feature of the traditional culture, could develop into a rewarding method of operation in government and business affairs. Change is a function of any living culture, a manifestation of growth. It always involves a certain degree of disorganization, calling for some adjustment and reorganisation. The problem arises when the rate of change is so rapid, and the resulting disorganisation is of such magnitude, that society fails to make effective and timely adjustment. The process is not, so to speak, a blind natural phenomenon; for it results mainly from human behavior. Rational orientation by individuals and groups concerned, therefore, could become an integral and dominant feature of the process. In this reality lies the possibility for society to plan and guide change, to predict its course and adjust accordingly, to soften the shock and benefit most from the results. The Middle East has been changing at an accelerated rate during the past forty years. The process reached unprecedented intensity and comprehensiveness under the impact of tremendous forces released or generated by World War II. Leading among these have been the spirit of nationalism, the conflict of political ideologies, improved facilities for communication and education, and the revolution of modern technology. Neither in its organisation, nor in its rationalized attitudes and dynamism, was Middle East society well prepared to meet all of these forces and steer a relatively smooth course of development and progress. Differences between countries in this respect are not ignored. The area as a whole, however, has suffered from a continuing state of disorganization and instability, sometimes erupting into critical upheavals. At the heart of the process, or the problem, lies one outstanding reality— the imbalance of a segmented society. |
| After taking this quick ground view of the various factors and trends in the situation, I wish now to raise my sight and look into the future. I shall do so by asking a few questions. Will the elite succeed in identifying themselves functionally and organically with the masses, not only on the political front, but also fully on other fronts? Will the prevailing spirit of intense nationalism survive its initial role of motivating political awakening and independence, to become a leading force for long-range economic and social development? Will the current impatient and anxious desire for Western technology and forms of organization give way to a more balanced development based upon selection, adaptation, and integration? Will the religious heritage of Islam be revived to play its leading role in the evolving social order? The trend of change and the future of Middle Eastern society are inevitably tied up with these basic questions. In my observation, the indications are strong that all of these eventually will be answered in the affirmative. NOTES 1 Fredrik Barth, Principles of Social Organization in Southern Kurdistan (Oslo, 1953). 2 Abdul-Hamid suspended the constitution in 1878 and resisted further liberal innovations until his overthrow in 1908. 3 Doreen Warriner, Land Reform and Development in the Middle East (Royal Institute of International Affairs [O.U.P.], 1957). 4 Ibid. 5 The office was reduced from four to two years in 1951. 6 John Gullick, Social Structure and Culture Change in a Lebanese Village, Viking Fund Publication in Anthropology No. 21 (New York, 1955). 7 S. S. Salim, "Economic and Political Organization of Echchbaysh, a Marsh Village Community in South Iraq" (Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of London, 1955). 8 Economist, June 22, 1957, p. 14. 9 Warriner, op. cit. |